{"id":1450,"date":"2020-04-10T20:08:24","date_gmt":"2020-04-10T10:08:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.freecolor.net\/?p=1450"},"modified":"2023-05-24T15:18:26","modified_gmt":"2023-05-24T05:18:26","slug":"%e5%86%8d%e8%ae%ae%e5%85%b3%e4%ba%8e%e5%8f%a3%e7%bd%a9%e6%80%9d%e8%80%83","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.freecolor.net\/?p=1450","title":{"rendered":"\u518d\u8bae\u5173\u4e8e\u53e3\u7f69\u7684\u601d\u8003"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u9996\u5148\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u5f97\u627f\u8ba4\u6587\u7b14\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u4e0a\u7bc7\u535a\u6587\u91cc\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u8868\u8fbe\u6ca1\u6709\u628a\u6211\u7684\u610f\u601d\u5b8c\u5168\u8868\u8fbe\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\u6211\u7684\u672c\u6765\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u60f3\u8bf4\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff0c\u6211\u53d1\u73b0\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u601d\u8003\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u6709\u8fd9\u4e48\u591a\u58c1\u969c\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u81ea\u6211\u53cd\u7701\u3002\u4f46\u5199\u51fa\u6765\u5c31\u597d\u50cf\u5728\u653b\u51fb\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\u5e76\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u6211\u539f\u6587\u7684\u610f\u56fe\u3002<\/p>\n

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1<\/strong>\u3001\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u591a\u770b\u82f1\u6587\u5a92\u4f53\uff0c\u53ea\u770b\u4e2d\u6587\u5a92\u4f53\u662f\u9760\u4e0d\u4f4f\u7684\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u4e2d\u6587\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u6ca1\u6709\u770b\u5230\u8fc7\u5bf9\u5e26\u53e3\u7f69\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u7684\u8d28\u7591\u3002\u6211\u770b\u5230\u7684\u90fd\u662f\u6b63\u9762\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4e2d\u56fd\u6234\u53e3\u7f69\u641e\u5f97\u597d\u7684\u8a00\u8bba\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u8d28\u7591\u548c\u53cd\u9a73\u6240\u4ee5\u5f53\u7136\u5c31\u5f62\u4e0d\u6210\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u53ea\u770b\u4e2d\u6587\u5a92\u4f53\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u5c31\u4e00\u5bb6\u4e4b\u8a00\u4e86\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u770b\u63a8\u4e0a\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u8bf4\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u770b\u52301\u670818\u65e5\u5e1d\u56fd\u7406\u5de5\u7684\u63a8\u6f14\u6587\u7ae0\u540e\u7acb\u523b\u5c31\u7406\u89e3\u4e86\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2a\u5f88\u5389\u5bb3\u7684\u75c5\u6bd2\u3002\u5f00\u59cb\u8fdb\u5165\u9632\u75ab\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.imperial.ac.uk\/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis\/covid-19\/report-1-case-estimates-of-covid-19\/<\/a><\/p>\n

\u6211\u7684\u8d44\u8baf\u6765\u6e90\u91cc\u5b8c\u5168\u6ca1\u770b\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u6211\u76f4\u5230\u6b66\u6c49\u5c01\u57ce\u4e86\u624d\u8d76\u7d27\u7ed9\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u4eb2\u53cb\u4e70\u53e3\u7f69\uff0c\u4f46\u4e3a\u65f6\u5df2\u665a\u3002\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0b\u6b21\u51fa\u73b0\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u8d44\u8baf\u6e20\u9053\u548c\u4fe1\u606f\u5904\u7406\u901f\u5ea6\u80fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u548c\u6211\u5173\u5fc3\u7684\u4eba\u5e78\u5b58\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u662f\u8fd9\u6b21\u75ab\u60c5\u6211\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u70b9\u6536\u83b7\uff0c\u4eca\u540e\u5e94\u8be5\u82e6\u7ec3\u82f1\u6587\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u80fd\u591a\u770b\u770b\u5e7f\u9614\u7684\u82f1\u6587\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

2<\/strong>\u3001\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u5fae\u4fe1\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u6587\u7ae0\u4e0d\u53ef\u4fe1\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\u591a\u63d0\u4e00\u53e5\uff0c\u591a\u770b\u82f1\u6587\u8fd8\u771f\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u53e5\u5e9f\u8bdd\u3002\u5c31\u6211\u89c2\u5bdf\u8eab\u8fb9\u5f88\u591a\u6d77\u5916\u534e\u4eba\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u82f1\u6587\u4e0d\u591f\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u9605\u8bfb\u4e60\u60ef\uff0c\u5176\u6d88\u606f\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u6e90\u8fd8\u771f\u5c31\u662f\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u3002\u771f\u53ef\u8c13\u8eab\u5916\u65e0\u5899\uff0c\u5fc3\u4e2d\u6709\u5899\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8bf4\u8d77\u6211\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u90a3\u7bc7\u5fae\u4fe1\u516c\u4f17\u53f7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u6211\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u4f1a\u770b\u5230\u548c\u8f9f\u8c23\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d1\u5c0f\u5728\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u53d1\u7684\uff0c\u8bc4\u8bed\u662f\u201c\u8c2d\u5fb7\u8d5b\u8fd9\u4e2a\u81edSB\uff01\u201d\u3002\u5728\u6211\u770b\u6765\u5728\u56fd\u4eba\u4e2d\u4ed6\u80af\u5b9a\u7b97\u76f8\u5bf9\u660e\u767d\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u8fde\u4ed6\u90fd\u53d7\u5230\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u86ca\u60d1\uff0c\u53ef\u89c1\u5fae\u4fe1\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u662f\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u641c\u72d0https:\/\/www.sohu.com\/a\/385206891_807209<\/a><\/p>\n

\u5de5\u5546\u8054 http:\/\/www.acfic.org.cn\/zt_home\/gslzxd2020\/gslzxd2020_8\/202003\/t20200327_231325.html<\/a><\/p>\n

\u987a\u624b\u5410\u69fd\u4e0b\u641c\u7d22\u5f15\u64ce\uff0c\u6211\u5728google\u4e0a\u641c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b0\u95fb\u6807\u9898\u670927\u6761\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u767e\u5ea6\u6709276\u4e07\u6761\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u56fd\u5185\u4e2d\u6587\u73af\u5883\u4e0d\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\u56e0\u7531\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u5219\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u524d\u51e0\u5929\u548c\u4e24\u4e2a\u56fd\u5185\u670b\u53cb\u89c6\u9891\u804a\u5929\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u6211\u5bb6\u5a03\u540c\u5b66\u7684\u5bb6\u957f\uff0c\u548c\u6211\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u5e74\u7eaa\uff0c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u5b66\u5386\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u4e24\u4eba\u90fd\u575a\u4fe1\u75c5\u6bd2\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u7ed9\u4f20\u8fc7\u6765\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7f51\u6c11\u57fa\u6570\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u5e73\u5747\u80fd\u6709\u9ad8\u4e2d\u6587\u5316\u5c31\u4e0d\u9519\u4e86\u5427\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\u80fd\u660e\u8fa8\u670b\u53cb\u5708\u4fe1\u606f\u4e2d\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u771f\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u5047\u5462\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u606f\u662f\u4f60\u4fe1\u4efb\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u8f6c\u53d1\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

3<\/strong>\u3001\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u56fa\u6709\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u6210\u89c1\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u63a5\u53d7\u65b0\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u969c\u788d\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u4e00\u76f4\u60f3\u60ca\u9192\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u53d8\u8001\uff0c\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u6210\u89c1\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5f53\u51fa\u73b0\u65b0\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u4e0e\u65e7\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u76f8\u6096\u65f6\u6211\u8981\u600e\u4e48\u5904\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4f1a\u4e0d\u5c51\u4e00\u987e\u89c9\u5f97\u8352\u8c2c\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4f1a\u62ff\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6765\u8003\u91cf\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b0\u75c5\u6bd2\u5417\uff1f\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u540d\u5b57\u548cSARS\u75c5\u6bd2\u76f8\u4f3c\u5230\u53ebSARS-CoV-2\u548cSARS-CoV\u8fd9\u4e48\u63a5\u8fd1\uff0c\u6211\u4f1a\u7406\u6240\u5f53\u7136\u7684\u89c9\u5f97\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u9632\u62a4SARS\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u9632\u62a4\u5b83\uff0c\u6216\u7528\u9632\u62a4\u5b83\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u9632\u62a4SARS\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u5047\u5982\u8fd9\u4e2a\u75c5\u6bd2\u5148\u51fa\u73b0\uff0cSARS\u540e\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u9632\u8fd9\u4e2a\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u9632SARS\u90a3\u5c31\u4f1a\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u707e\u96be\uff0c\u50cf\u6dd8\u5927\u82b1\u56ed\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u707e\u96be\u3002<\/p>\n

\u90a3\u4e48SARS\u5148\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u75c5\u6bd2\u540e\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u9632\u62a4SARS\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u9632\u62a4\u5b83\uff0c\u53c8\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5b8c\u5168\u6ca1\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u6d6a\u8d39\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

4<\/strong>\u3001\u5173\u4e8e\u201c<\/strong>\u5426\u5b9a\u81ea\u6211\u662f\u591a\u4e48\u56f0\u96be\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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